the fall in oil prices aggravate tensions in 2015

After a year marked by the 40% drop in oil prices, 2015 promises to be just as busy in the oil market, which feed the geopolitical tensions.
Prices had been falling for months, but the decision in November, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to reduce their production plunged below $ 70 a barrel, something not seen since 2009.
To lean toward the status quo, OPEC would send a message that does not think alone take over the responsibility of maintaining prices at a high level when there are other players in the market, such as oil producers and those Americans shale who they are not members of the cartel, such as Russia and Norway.
There are a lot of oil on the market by the oil shale revolution in the United States, the return to power of Libyan oil, moderation in consumption in China and especially in Europe, and other factors.
In 2015, oil prices remain low and that could fuel disputes among producing countries, starting with OPEC.
For Venezuela, whose government spending is entirely dependent on oil revenues, high prices are a matter of life and death, while Saudi Arabia can afford to lower prices and is tired, the first producer of having to bear the bulk of the production cuts.
Riad "knows that in an environment of low prices will be the last to be affected and is willing to sacrifice to achieve a rebalancing OPEC," said Olivier Jakob, of consultants Petromatrix.
Instead, "Venezuela is the weakest link in the supply chain and the risks of civil unrest in that country are greater in 2015," he added.
The fall in oil revenues of Iraq could hurt the government in its fight against Islamic State group said Richard Mallinson, geopolitical expert on energy issues.
Indirectly this could lead to increased Iranian influence in Iraq, and "both countries together could compete with Saudi Arabia in the coming years," Olivier Jakob estimated, although this hypothesis depends on the direction to take international sanctions on Iran, which already he was forced to halve its exports.
- Rebalance supply and demand -
Low prices could end up promoting the rebalancing that allows them up, if they begin to discourage new investment.
"Lower prices will test severely the profitability of many US producers' oil shale, Commerzbank experts say.
US production has boomed in recent years thanks to extracting the oil using the "fracking," or hydraulic fracturing, a technique that involves injecting water at high pressure to fracture rocks located at depths of between 1,500 and 2,400 meters.
A technique opens up the possibility of extracting oil in almost any country, if you have the expensive technology.
But low oil prices have made new mining licenses have begun to decline in the United States this fall.
In addition, "we must not rule out a reduction in OPEC production," said Mallinson, or have sudden cuts in supply.
In Venezuela, declining oil revenues will test the social and political climate. And Russia, already weakened by Western sanctions and the collapse of the ruble, could pump less crude due to lack of investments.

- Reinvigorate demand -

Consumer side, low prices should stimulate demand and increase traffic by road and air -and even increase emissions of greenhouse gases before crucial international negotiations on global warming in Paris in late 2015.
Barclays bank also expects a rapid increase in demand in China next year.
But "it could be months or even a year before the effects of falling prices sits on the world economy," said Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com.
And although the fall in prices will necessarily boost demand, the level of oil reserves is so high that the effect on prices would not be noticed until the second half of 2015, predicted Mallinson.