lunes, 18 de enero de 2016

Oil prices will remain weak


Oil prices to remain low after falling more than 50% since June said a commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs. He argued in a report that growth in demand in China, and other emerging markets would slow.
Jeff Currie, who rose to prominence when projecting an increase in oil prices above $ 100 a barrel last decade, said the increased production of unconventional oil realigned American energy markets. This change put China as a large and important consumer the United States, the world's largest importer since the 1940s.
"China, along with other emerging markets, has now been forced to pay in full for the last barrel of its oil needs from the world. As a result, the days of increased oil demand (in emerging markets) have behind us, "said the analyst.
Goldman Sachs, arguably the most influential commodity insects bank reduced its forecast two weeks ago and predicted that Brent oil prices could drop below $ 40 a barrel and averaged little more than $ 50 this year.
The expert warned in a report this week that the collapse of oil could be the "most surprising and momentous event of the market" since the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. Currie added that even if oil prices rebound from their recent lows is unlikely they recover to levels seen earlier this decade.
Brent reached record highs above $ 147 a barrel in 2008. Crude oil averaged about $ 110 per barrel between 2011 and 2013 as supply disruptions helped hide the impact of shale oil boom in the United United.
"Finally a new equilibrium price will likely be much lower than the price of the last decade will be" Currie wrote.
Brent has fallen from over $ 115 a barrel in June 2014, to $ 45.19 on January 16, one of the lowest prices for six years level. The cause of this decline was the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to reduce the pumping despite falling prices and chose to focus on maintaining market share.
Brent was trading Tuesday just above $ 48 a barrel.
On Monday, the president of Goldman Sachs and former operator of the commodity division of the bank, Gary Cohn, told CNBC that oil prices could fall to $ 30 a barrel, nearly one-third below their current levels.

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